2024-2025, SHFE/LME Lead Price Ratio Diverges, Lead-Acid Battery Export Pattern Reverses [SMM Analysis]

Published: Mar 21, 2025 10:05

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SMM Analysis: SHFE/LME Lead Price Ratio Divergence, Lead-Acid Battery Export Pattern Reversal, 2024-2025 SMM reported on March 21: According to customs data, lead-acid battery imports in February 2025 were 510,800 units, up 29.5% MoM and 57.06% YoY; the cumulative imports of lead-acid batteries from January to February 2025...

SMM March 21 News: According to customs data, lead-acid battery imports in February 2025 were 510,800 units, up 29.5% MoM and 57.06% YoY; cumulative imports for January-February 2025 were 905,300 units, up 9.45% YoY. Lead-acid battery exports in February 2025 were 12,796,300 units, down 41.98% MoM and 17.38% YoY; cumulative exports for January-February 2025 were 34,852,700 units, down 90.92% YoY.

It is understood that the lead price trend from January-February was stronger domestically than overseas, with the SHFE/LME lead price ratio gradually expanding, opening the import window for lead-related products. The ratio in February was better than in January, leading to an increase in lead-acid battery imports compared to the previous month, while lead-acid battery exports further declined. In addition to the difference in domestic and overseas lead prices, the Chinese New Year holiday spanned late January to early February, during which lead-acid battery companies generally took a break, and logistics and transportation were suspended, also contributing to the decrease in lead-acid battery exports in January-February.

Compared to the same period in 2024, the cumulative export volume of lead-acid batteries in January-February 2025 diverged significantly, mainly due to changes in the domestic and overseas lead price ratio. In the same period of 2024, the SHFE/LME lead price ratio narrowed, favoring the export of lead-related products, with cumulative exports of lead-acid batteries up 27.1% YoY. It is understood that this year, due to higher domestic lead prices compared to the overseas market, the competitive pressure faced by lead-acid battery exports in the overseas market has increased. Southeast Asian and neighboring countries, relying on relatively cheaper lead-acid battery products, have had a particularly significant impact on China's lead-acid battery export competition.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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